Pakistan’s parliament is hung, with no clear winner from last week’s elections. Not much appears to have changed in the last five days, as none of the front-runners seem any closer to establishing a government.
In a shocking development earlier on Thursday, independent candidates supported by the imprisoned former prime minister Imran Khan emerged victorious with 93 out of 266 seats. Considering the nation’s political climate, it was unexpected. Amidst severe accusations of vote manipulation, Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party was unable to conduct campaign rallies, had no poll workers on election day, and experienced internet restrictions. The counting process took three days, an unusually long time in a nation where early results of the outcome typically surface within a few hours of polling booths closing.
Following the release of the initial results, Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N) party and a coalition of independent candidates supported by former prime minister Imran Khan were running neck and neck for first place. Bilawal Bhutto Zardari’s Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) was in third place.
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Three weeks following the national election, the president is required by law to convene the National Assembly or lower house of parliament. This implies that the parties have till February 29 to unite into a coalition. During that session, new legislators are sworn in. They file nomination papers for several important positions, such as leader of the house and speaker of the house. A simple majority of 134 members is needed to elect a new prime minister in a parliamentary vote held once these slots are filled.
Khan is not eligible to compete, though, as he is incarcerated and cannot hold public office. Additionally, while independents supported by the PTI can establish a government with the help of other parties, doing so presents a number of difficulties, one of which is preserving the stability of the administration.
According to analyst Azim Chaudhry, Khan has made it plain that he doesn’t want to talk to the other parties, therefore they have “grievances and grudges” against him from his time in government and aren’t ready to shake hands.
Once it was evident that Khan supporters were taking the lead, negotiations for a coalition were initiated by the PML-N and PPP. They assert to have agreements with minor parties and recently elected lawmakers, including Khan’s defections. It’s more difficult to determine who from this motley crew could become prime minister.
Party sources claim that Mr. Sharif’s temperament makes him unfit for a partnership. Shehbaz, his younger brother, who is thought to be more accommodative, formed a coalition following Khan’s overthrow.
And then there is the former foreign minister, Mr. Bhutto-Zardari. It’s unclear if he will be interested in holding the highest position in a government that was elected in such a corrupt manner.
However, because they hold the third-largest percentage of seats, he and his party are essential to any alliance. His father, Asif Ali Zardari, is considered a kingmaker, and for good reason. Chaudhry claims that he won’t take any action that may endanger his son’s political career, such as collaborating with Khan.
To appease all parties, there’s a potential that an outsider may win the prime ministership, but it’s unlikely that the two families would give up their claim to power.